Pigskin Picks 2009
Hi everyone.
Here is the spread for Super Bowl Sunday:
Sunday, Feb. 7
Favorite Score Line Score Underdog
Indianapolis 4.5 New Orleans
Weekly recaps
Conference Championship weekend
Congratulations to Cindy for winning the Odds title. Her record of 137-125-4 easily took the top of the standings. She was the only person with a winning record against the spread, just like last year’s winner (Squid 133-128-5) was. Cindy finished in a tie for second place last year, three games back. Coincidentally, Squid is in a tie for second place with the Super Bowl remaining.
As for the Picks crown, last year’s winner and runner-up—Janel and Joe, respectively—were fighting for the top spot again this year going well into the playoffs. Joe had a slim one-game lead going into the Conference Championships. While they both picked Indy to win, they did differ on the NFC game. If Janel won, they’d be tied going into the Super Bowl… so…
Congratulations Joe on his Picks championship! Joe correctly picked New Orleans to beat the Vikings, which clinched the title (174-92) and kept Janel (172-94) from repeating as champ. Shannon can do no worse than a tie for third place. She is currently sitting at 170 wins while Lloyd and Squid are at 169. Last year, Janel’s title-winning record was 166-99-1. Only two people this season did NOT win 166 games (though I could if I pick the SBXLIV winner). How about that?!
I think we all know there was a larger disparity in the league this year, with lots of double-digits spreads and so on. And it showed on some of the peripheral stats. As a group we split more games early in the season because of those large spreads. Then as teams started to not cover those spreads we split more games later in the year. The result was 30 more splits this year as a group than last year, AND my brother was picking with us last year. Oh… we were better at it last year too (.341 pct. last year and .315 this year). We were unanimous on 43 games this year, compared to last year’s 26 games, because of the disparity. We went 29-15 in picks and 15-27-1 vs. the spread. We were better at this last year too: 21-5/14-12.
Interesting tidbit: From weeks 12 through this weekend, Fozzy had 12 island games, which was the most by a bit (next most was 9), while Janel had 2 island games.
Last tidbit: Joe, Shannon, and Fozzy picked Indy and New Orleans to win both their games to get to the Super Bowl. Last year, no one picked the Cardinals to get past the Panthers, thus no one had a "prediction" of Steelers-Cards.
So... Colts or Saints? Will it be the highest scoring Super Bowl in history (record is 75 points - SF 46-29)?
Standings
Picks – Postseason (wildcard through Conference finals)
Fozzy 6-4
Joe 6-4
Janel 5-5
Shannon 5-5
Lloyd 4-6
Me 4-6
Squid 4-6
Cindy 3-7
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Joe 174-92 --
Janel 172-94 2
Shannon 170-96 4
Lloyd 169-97 5
Squid 169-97 5
Cindy 167-99 7
Me 165-101 9
Fozzy 157-109 17
Odds – Postseason (wild card through conference finals)
Janel 6-4
Joe 5-5
Squid 5-5
Fozzy 4-6
Shannon 4-6
Cindy 3-7
Lloyd 3-7
Me 3-7
Odds – Season
Player W-L-T GB
Cindy 136-126-4 --
Joe 129-133-4 7
Squid 129-133-4 7
Janel 128-134-4 8
Lloyd 127-135-4 9
Fozzy 126-136-4 10
Me 122-140-4 14
Shannon 119-143-4 17
WEEK 17
While Cindy has herself a nine-game lead and thus the Odds title locked up with eleven games to go, the Picks title appears to be a dogfight. Joe holds on to the top spot, but there are four games separating Joe from sixth place. Each playoff game is important not just for the NFLers playing in them.
Four games were decided by the spread last week. Houston did not cover the 8 points over New England. Baltimore did not cover the 10.5 points over Oakland. San Diego did not cover the 3.5 over Washington. Tennessee and Seattle tied (spread was four, 17-13 final).
Being along was a BAD thing last week. Fozzy was alone picking two division-winning teams who did not play some of their starters in the season finale (Saints, Bengals), thus two losses. Shannon thought the Bears would lose to the Lions; nope. Lloyd split the Niners-Rams game, thinking either the Rams were not as bad as everyone thought or the Niners were worse than everyone thought; Niners won by 22. Cindy split the Viking-Giants game, hoping her beloved G-men might actually return from their offseason vacation early. Janel picked the Rams outright, which was outright wrong. Janel also picked the Chiefs, who were crushed by… wait… sorry… the Chiefs WON, crushing the Broncos.
There was slightly more success splitting games. I split three games (Den-KC, NYJ-Cin, and my only right one Bal-Oak). Fozzy split the Den-KC game too. Lloyd split four games: Buf-Ind, SF-StL, Den-KC, Bal-Oak (one for four). Cindy split Min-NYG and Buf-Ind. Joe split Buf-Ind. Janel split NYJ-Cin and… a winner with Bal-Oak. Yup, three of us thought the playoff Ravens would not cover that 10.5 against a crappy Raiders. Hmm…
Lastly, we were unanimous with Tennessee (so close) and San Diego (c’mon, 3.5?), two of the teams that did not cover…
Standings
Picks – Week 17
Squid 14-2
Cindy 13-3
Janel 12-4
Joe 12-4
Lloyd 11-5
Me 11-5
Fozzy 10-6
Shannon 10-6
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Joe 169-87 --
Janel 168-88 1
Lloyd 166-90 3
Shannon 166-90 3
Squid 166-90 3
Cindy 165-91 4
Me 162-94 7
Fozzy 152-104 17
Odds – Week 17
Janel 10-5
Squid 10-5
Me 8-7
Shannon 8-7
Cindy 7-8
Fozzy 7-8
Joe 7-8
Lloyd 7-8
Odds – Season
Player W-L-T GB
Cindy 134-118-4 --
Joe 125-127-4 9
Lloyd 125-127-4 9
Squid 125-127-4 9
Fozzy 123-129-4 11
Janel 123-129-4 11
Me 120-132-4 14
Shannon 116-136-4 18
WEEK 16
So, the Colts quit on a game, a winning streak, a perfect season. Not everyone can win all the time.
The Chargers and Eagles may be the hottest teams in football. Hot streaks at the right time can lead to a title.
Who’s going to stop Joe?
Yes, Joe.
Joe is the Picks leader by one game. All by himself. He has a hot streak; hottest in the last five weeks by a lot. Joe has average 11 wins in the last five weeks; five more total wins than anyone else.
Janel’s reign at the top has ended. Not everyone can sit in the throne all the time.
And, Joe, your wife and my wife are probably not too happy to find out that you overtook them. Just sayin’.
There are 27 games remaining - 16 this weekend, and 11 playoff games. And while Cindy could sew up the Odds title this weekend, it looks like the Picks title will come down to the playoffs, maybe even the Super Bowl, since we still have four people within two games of each other, and three more within 6 of the top spot.
By the way, only one person has been better versus the spread the past five weeks than Cindy - her husband. What’s with the household competitions, already?
And let me just say that despite our all having a winning record last week, it still sucked. At least we unanimously thought the Colts had more integrity than to give up a close game with plenty of time left. Disgraceful. I understand the idea of keeping your players healthy and fresh, but in the manner it was done, it was awful; bad for the team, the fans, TV ratings, etc. And yet, even with all that, we ALSO unanimously picked a team that was WORSE. The Giants checked out before showing up to the stadium, which was the final home game ever at the Meadowlands. As inconsistent as the G-men had been all year, we all thought they could still beat Carolina, at home.
We also unanimously chose Dallas and New England, hell yeah. And Cincy, who won but did not cover the spread.
This weekend presents some interesting scenarios for the playoffs in the NFL. The Patriots could lose at the Texans on Sunday. The Bengals could lose at the Jets on Sunday. If the Ravens and Broncos lose, then next week’s wild card AFC playoff games would be déjà vu (except for change of venue): Texans at New England and Jets at Cincy.
In the NFC, the Cowboys could win the NFC East by beating the Eagles at home. The loser is a wild card. And two other playoff teams face off: Arizona at Green Bay. And, um, so if the Cowboys win and the Packers win (and the Vikings beat the Giants), then next week’s wild card NFC playoff games would be déjà vu: Philly at Dallas and the Packers at Cardinals.
How strange would that be - four Week 17 matchups repeating for first-round playoff action?
Standings
Picks - Week 16
Cindy 11-5
Fozzy 10-6
Joe 10-6
Lloyd 10-6
Janel 9-7
Me 9-7
Shannon 9-7
Squid 9-7
Picks - Season
Player W-L GB
Joe 157-83 --
Janel 156-84 1
Shannon 156-84 1
Lloyd 155-85 2
Cindy 152-88 5
Squid 152-88 5
Me 151-89 6
Fozzy 142-98 15
Odds - Week 16
Lloyd 9-7
Cindy 8-8
Fozzy 8-8
Squid 8-8
Janel 7-9
Joe 7-9
Me 7-9
Shannon 7-9
Odds - Season
Player W-L-T GB
Cindy 127-110-3 --
Joe 118-119-3 9
Lloyd 118-119-3 9
Fozzy 116-121-3 11
Squid 115-122 3 12
Janel 113-124-3 14
Me 112-125-3 15
Shannon 108-129-3 19
WEEK 15
First, let me begin with this observation of the NFL right now in time: It has never been more of a passing league than this season; this day and age of the NFL. It is been an increasingly prolific QB-centric league for years, decades even, however, never more than this season is it about passing the football. Is it the schemes? Is it the rules protecting quarterbacks? Is it that the NFL knows scoring heightens fan interest and TV ratings? Is it a vast wasteland of quality cornerbacks and safeties? I don’t know. Maybe all of the above, but I do know this:
Coming into the 2009 season, 74 quarterbacks have thrown for 4,000 yards in one season. The first four QBs to perform this feat were Joe Namath in 1967 (4,007), Dan Fouts in 1979 (4,082), Fouts again in 1980 (4,715), and Brian Sipe also in 1980 (4,132). Thus, 70 times this number has been attained in the last 28 seasons, roughly 2.5 per year, after only FOUR in forever.
That’s not the biggest stunner. Here’s the list of passing yards leaders for the 2009 season, which has two games remaining:
Peyton Manning 4,213
Matt Schaub 4,181
Drew Brees 4,130
Aaron Rodgers 3,962 (needs 38 yards)
Tom Brady 3,945 (needs 55 yards)
Philip Rivers 3,891 (needs 109 yards)
Tony Romo 3,886 (needs 114 yards)
Ben Roethlisberger 3,849 (needs 151 yards)
Eli Manning 3,584 (needs 416 yards)
Brett Favre 3,565 (needs 435 yards)
Kurt Warner 3,414 (needs 586 yards)
Yup. There are EIGHT QBs that will surpass 4,000 yards, and another three who might do it (Eli and Brett are on pace, Warner needs two really good games).
By the way, Titans’ Chris Johnson needs 386 rushing yards to set the single-season rushing yards record currently held by Eric Dickerson, who ran for 2,105 yards for the Rams in 1984. I doubt Johnson becomes the sixth RB to 2,000 yards, but the second-year back has rushed for 100+ in each of the past nine weeks, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
OK… now to our picks and stuff.
We have a three-way tie for first in the picks. Yes, Janel IS still one of them. In the meantime, only one person gained ground (1 game) on Cindy in the odds.
We had SIX games decided by the spread this week, and two resulted in TIES. After only one tie with the spread all season, we got two. More amazing than that is that one of the ties had a 1-point spread (Pitt 37, by 1, over GB 36). Oh, and the New England “Are we supposed to play in the second half” Patriots (by 7 over Buffalo, 17-10).
Two people correctly split the Ariz-Det game (Fozzy and Joe), we unanimously thought the Texans could cover the 12.5 over the Rams, two people split the NE-Buf game (tie), no one split the Ten-Mia game, two people split the SD-Cin game (Me and Joe), and of course no one (could) split the Pit-GB game (tie).
There are 43 games remaining, including postseason, in the NFL 2009 season. So, who will win Super Bowl 44? My preseason pick was New England over Philly. I think I will be wrong. But I will predict now that the final couple weeks will look like this:
AFC Div 1: New England over Indy (in Indy) (ends Indy undefeated season)
AFC Div 2: San Diego over Cincinnati (in SD)
AFC Title: SD over NE (in SD)
NFC Div 1: New Orleans over Green Bay (in NO)
NFC Div 2: Philly over Minnesota (in Minn)
NFC Title: NO over Philly (in NO)
SB44: SD over NO
Standings
Picks – Week 15
Joe 11-5
Me 11-5
Shannon 11-5
Cindy 9-7
Squid 9-7
Fozzy 8-8
Janel 8-8
Lloyd 7-9
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Janel 147-77 --
Joe 147-77 --
Shannon 147-77 --
Lloyd 145-79 2
Squid 143-81 4
Me 142-82 5
Cindy 141-83 6
Fozzy 132-92 15
Odds – Week 15
Fozzy 8-6-2
Cindy 7-7-2
Joe 7-7-2
Me 7-7-2
Shannon 6-8-2
Squid 6-8-2
Janel 4-10-2
Lloyd 4-10-2
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 119-102-3 --
Joe 111-110-3 8
Lloyd 109-112-3 10
Fozzy 108-113-3 11
Squid 107-114-3 12
Janel 106-115-3 13
Me 105-116-3 14
Shannon 101-120-3 18
WEEK 14
Janel held on to the top spot in picks, going 11-5, while two of her closest competitors (Shannon, Joe) lost ground and another (Lloyd) held tight at one game back. And she did this while being the only one in Week 14 without a split or an island.
In fact, Joe was the only other person without an island, and picking alone last week was not a very favorable thing to do. I was alone picking Cincy over Minny (dumb), Shannon took Jax to hold off the Fins (nope), Squid took the Panthers outright over the Pats (NE did not cover, but won), and Cindy split the Pit-Cle game (Browns won their 2nd game of the season). Lloyd had a little success by splitting the Saints-Falcons tilt (NO won by 3, spread was 10) and splitting the Titans-Rams blowout (Tenn won by 40).
Arguably the big winner for being alone last week was Fozzy. The other Bill was the only person believing that the Redskins would beat the Raiders in Oakland (by 21 in fact) and he picked the Falcons to upset the Saints (an odds win). Not only did Foz tie Janel and Lloyd in picks with 11-5, he bested the group by at least 2 games in the spread with a 12-4 week, which took him out of the Odds cellar and into 6th place. Cindy is still holding the season lead by a comfortable margin.
You may have noticed (from the above recap) a number of split picks this week. Five of us correctly split the Pats-Panthers game, while Lloyd split the Saints-Falcons game, which were the only games decided by the spread. However, our splits did not end there. Squid and Joe split the Ravens-Lions game (Bal won by 45), there was that Titan-Rams split Lloyd made, and Cindy’s aforementioned Steelers-Browns split.
We were unanimous in picking the Packers to beat the Bears, but we did not foresee the Cardinals’ turning the ball over seven times against the 49ers.
Lastly, I just find this VERY interesting: the Picks leader this season. Janel and Joe were tied after Week 1, then Cindy claimed the lead after two weeks. Janel tied her after Week 3, but gave it back to Cindy after Week 4. Cindy held it through Week 5. Then Janel re-tied her after Week 6, had sole possession after Week 7, was tied again with Cindy after Weeks 8 and 9. So, notice that after Week 1, the ONLY people to be atop the Picks standings were Cindy and Janel. However, Squid took the lead through 10 weeks. Then Janel took sole possession again after the 11th week, before Lloyd tied her through 12 weeks and Shannon tied her through 13 weeks. And now Janel is alone at the top again.
What am I getting at? Well, I find it interesting that Janel has at least shared the lead for 10 of the 14 weeks, despite Cindy, Squid, Lloyd, and Shannon all spending time at the top just in the last six weeks. And Joe, currently 3 games back, is the hottest person over the past 3 weeks (35 wins) and 5 weeks (53 wins, tied with Lloyd), so is his turn coming to taste the lead? Not if Janel keeps it up (52 wins in the last 5 weeks).
Standings
Picks – Week 14
Fozzy 11-5
Janel 11-5
Lloyd 11-5
Cindy 10-6
Joe 10-6
Me 10-6
Squid 10-6
Shannon 8-8
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Janel 139-69 --
Lloyd 138-70 1
Joe 136-72 3
Shannon 136-72 3
Squid 134-74 5
Cindy 132-76 7
Me 131-77 8
Fozzy 124-84 15
Odds – Week 14
Fozzy 12-4
Cindy 10-6
Lloyd 10-6
Janel 9-7
Me 9-7
Squid 9-7
Joe 8-8
Shannon 6-10
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 112-95-1 --
Lloyd 105-102-1 7
Joe 104-103-1 8
Janel 102-105-1 10
Squid 101-106-1 11
Fozzy 100-107-1 12
Me 98-109-1 14
Shannon 95-112-1 17
WEEK 13
Results and standings only. Sorry.
Standings
Picks - Week 13
Joe 13-3
Shannon 12-4
Janel 10-6
Squid 10-6
Cindy 9-7
Lloyd 9-7
Me 8-8
Fozzy 6-10
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Janel 128-64 --
Shannon 128-64 --
Lloyd 127-65 1
Joe 126-66 2
Squid 124-68 4
Cindy 122-70 6
Me 121-71 7
Fozzy 113-79 15
Odds - Week 13
Joe 8-8
Shannon 8-8
Cindy 7-9
Janel 6-10
Squid 6-10
Lloyd 5-11
Me 5-11
Fozzy 4-12
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 102-89-1 --
Joe 96-95-1 6
Lloyd 95-96-1 7
Janel 93-98-1 9
Squid 92-99-1 10
Me 89-102-1 13
Shannon 89-102-1 13
Fozzy 88-103-1 14
WEEK 12
Results and standings only. Sorry.
Picks - Week 12
Lloyd 14-2
Fozzy 12-4
Joe 12-4
Janel 11-5
Shannon 11-5
Cindy 9-7
Me 9-7
Squid 9-7
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Janel 118-58 --
Lloyd 118-58 --
Shannon 116-60 2
Squid 114-62 4
Cindy 113-63 5
Me 113-63 5
Joe 113-63 5
Fozzy 107-69 11
Odds - Week 12
Lloyd 11-5
Fozzy 10-6
Joe 9-7
Cindy 8-8
Janel 8-8
Shannon 8-8
Squid 6-10
Me 4-12
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 95-80-1 --
Lloyd 90-85-1 5
Joe 88-87-1 7
Janel 87-88-1 8
Squid 86-89-1 9
Fozzy 84-91-1 11
Me 84-91-1 11
Shannon 81-94-1 14
WEEK 11
Where do I begin: six games decided by the spread, eight island picks, a game with three choices and no islands, seven people with double-digit wins, a new Picks #1 (again), Cindy’s return to glory, two lost unanimous games? Phew!
I’ll start with the picks standings as Janel returns to the top, but by herself for the first time. Janel won the week with a 12-4 record, while Squid – the new #1 last week – took up the rear at 9-7 (and 9 wins was good for 2nd place last week). Still, there’s only three games separating 1st and 6th place. Meanwhile, Cindy has the only .500-or-better record vs. the spread in Week 11 at 9-7, which puts some cushion back in her lead there. And somehow, I’ve quietly tied Squid for best picks record over the past 3 weeks and conjured the only winning odds record in that same timeframe. But, Squid still has the best record over the past five weeks in both categories.
Next, six spreads not covered by the favorite:
• Jax-Buf, we were unanimous for Jax
• Giants-Falcons, 5 chose NYG, 3 chose Atl
• “Draft Pick Bowl,” 6 for Det, 2 for Cle, the spread was 3.5
• GB-SF, Cheese missed covering by 0.6, I got this right, the rest of you picked GB to cover, nyah nyah
• Dal-Was, no one expected a 7-6 game, I mean, the spread was 11!; three people though were correct in splitting (Fozzy, Squid, Cindy), while the rest thought Dallas could cover, which meant we thought they could score at least 12 points,
• Ariz-Sea, Cards were favored by 9, won by 8; Cindy split this game while the rest of us thought the Cards would take care of business
The islands? you ask. I split GB-SF (right) and split NE-Jets (thankfully wrong); Fozzy split No-TB (nope); Cindy split Ariz-Sea (yup); Janel picked Miami on Thursday (yessa) and the Ravens on Sunday (almost…); and the crowning failure of islands for Week 11 was Squid’s pair of underdogs that lost by a total of 73-16 (Sea and TB losers to Min and NO respectively).
Lastly, the unanimous games were picking the Jags (who did not cover the 8.5) and… and… the Bengals, who lost (?!) to Oakland.
Standings
Picks – Week 11
Janel 12-4
Cindy 11-5
Joe 11-5
Lloyd 11-5
Me 11-5
Shannon 11-5
Fozzy 10-6
Squid 9-7
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Janel 107-53 --
Squid 105-55 2
Shannon 105-55 2
Cindy 104-56 3
Lloyd 104-56 3
Me 104-56 3
Joe 101-59 6
Fozzy 95-65 12
Odds – Week 11
Cindy 9-7
Fozzy 7-9
Joe 7-9
Me 7-9
Squid 7-9
Janel 6-10
Lloyd 5-11
Shannon 5-11
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 87-72-1 --
Me 80-79-1 7
Squid 80-79-1 7
Janel 79-80-1 8
Joe 79-80-1 8
Lloyd 79-80-1 8
Fozzy 74-85-1 13
Shannon 73-86-1 14
WEEK 10
Well, the standings got a MAJOR shakeup with the Week 10 games in the books. Both co-leaders after 9 weeks are behind the new top dog. Squid rode an 11-win week to the top of the picks standings. Meanwhile, Cindy’s slow descent from the top (no double-digit wins since doing so Weeks 1 through 4) back to the pack sped up with only 6 wins. Janel, who was tied with Cindy at the top, is now at #2 by herself, one game back. Squid has had 10 or more wins in four of the last six weeks, easily making him the hottest person here. With six of us within three games of each other, this will be fun to watch the remainder of the season.
In regards to the odds, Cindy still has a solid lead, but it was cut in half when she stumbled to a 4-11 record. Lloyd and I made the biggest moves to catch her as we went 9-6, picking up 5 games in the standings.
By the way, three games were decided by the spread last week. NO-StL (we were unanimous in picking NO to cover), Mia-TB (Cindy and I got that right), and the “4th-and-2” game (only two people picked Indy, six picked NE, no splits of course).
There were only four islands last week: Fozzy took Tampa to win (lost to Miami 25-23), Shannon took the Panthers over Falcons (yup!), Lloyd splut the Jets-Jags game (underdog Jags won), and Cindy took the Bills over the Titans (oops… 41-17 loss).
Standings
Picks – Week 10
Squid 11-4
Me 9-6
Shannon 9-6
Fozzy 8-7
Janel 8-7
Lloyd 8-7
Joe 7-8
Cindy 6-9
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Squid 96-48 --
Janel 95-49 1
Shannon 94-50 2
Cindy 93-51 3
Lloyd 93-51 3
Me 93-51 3
Joe 90-54 6
Fozzy 85-59 10
Odds – Week 10
Lloyd 9-6
Me 9-6
Janel 7-8
Joe 7-8
Shannon 7-8
Squid 7-8
Fozzy 6-9
Cindy 4-11
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 78-65-1 --
Lloyd 74-69-1 4
Janel 73-70-1 5
Me 73-70-1 5
Squid 73-70-1 5
Joe 72-71-1 6
Shannon 68-75-1 10
Fozzy 67-76-1 11
WEEK 9
So, in this season of predictability, disparity, and huge point spreads, we have a week where the underdog was 10-3 when factoring in the spread. Yup. 10-3, which is absolutely stunning. In past years, one could expect a few weeks like that, because of the parity of the NFL. Not this year, however. Heck, if judging just on wins and losses (no odds), the underdog won six games. Tampa, for one, was a 10-point dog only to win by 10. And then there were the 3-point spread games: Baltimore by 3 on the road loses to Cincy by 10, Chicago by 3 at home loses by 20 to Arizona, the Giants by 3 at home lose by 1 to SD, and Philly by 3 at home loses by 4 to Dallas. Pittsburgh, in fact, was the only 3-point favorite to win, cruising to a decisive 28-10 final over the (fading?) Broncos in Denver.
What does all that mean for us? Well, it means we had one unanimous game (Seattle, a win), four islands that were all splits, and some actually surprising choices that were successful.
Success, I say? Yup, we kind of predicted a parity-like week; how strange. Example #1: Cindy and Joe correctly picked Tennessee to beat the Niners in San Fran. Example #2: All four games decided by the spread (NE-Mia, Jax-KC, Ind-Hou, and NO-Car) had at least one split winner, with Squid being alone in correctly thinking that the Jags could not cover 6 over the Chiefs (and really he can thank new Chiefs WR Chris Chambers for that). Example #3: Fozzy had some foresight that Tampa would give the Cheese a game by splitting it. Of course, Tampa stunned Cheesehead Nation with their outright win (aside: don’t blame Rodgers as his O-line and RBs are mediocre). Oh, and we all had winning records for picks, which, considering again that 6 dogs won, is a pretty darn impressive feat, methinks.
Islands: Fozzy alone on splitting GB-TB, half right. Squid alone on splitting Jax-KC, way right. Lloyd alone splitting Atl-Was, half right. Joe alone splitting Bal-Cin, gets his first loss in the picks column for islands.
Splits: Not including the aforementioned splits in the islands section, Lloyd, Joe, and I correctly split Ind-Hou; Fozzy and Squid correctly split NE-Mia; and Shannon, Cindy, and Janel correctly split NO-Car. By the way, as usual Lloyd has his splitting fetish in full flair this season, having split 29 games so far. He split 42 games last year, so his pace is higher right now. But we’re up as a whole, too. Shannon and Janel have already split more games this year than ALL of last year. I think this is a product of all the double-digit spreads. We had 11 games of spread so 10 or more after 9 weeks last year. There were 17 more over the course of the rest of the season, including playoffs (which I think is pretty normal as oddsmakers have more sample size and actual results for basis) for a seazson total of 28 double-digit spreads in 2008. This year? you ask. We have had 26 double-digit spreads already; yup two away from matching last year, and we have 8 more weeks of the regular season. Yes, we surpass 28 with this week’s docket. Crazy, I tell you.
Picks – Week 9
Me 10-3
Squid 10-3
Cindy 9-4
Janel 9-4
Lloyd 9-4
Shannon 9-4
Joe 8-5
Fozzy 7-6
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 87-42 --
Janel 87-42 --
Lloyd 85-44 2
Shannon 85-44 2
Squid 85-44 2
Me 84-45 3
Joe 83-46 4
Fozzy 77-52 10
Odds – Week 9
Squid 8-5
Me 7-6
Cindy 6-7
Janel 6-7
Joe 6-7
Shannon 6-7
Fozzy 5-8
Lloyd 5-8
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 74-54-1 --
Janel 66-62-1 8
Squid 66-62-1 8
Lloyd 65-63-1 9
Joe 65-63-1 9
Me 64-64-1 10
Fozzy 61-67-1 13
Shannon 61-67-1 13
WEEK 8
We were all pretty mediocre last week, with one exception. I managed to be absolutely dreadful versus the spread: 2-11. Yikes!
And what kind of week was Week 8? Well, of the FIVE games with double-digit favorites, three favorites did not cover (Indy, SD, and NO) and a fourth lost outright (Ariz). The lone big fave to win was… Chicago, who crushed the Browns.
Oh, and get this: we were unanimous for just one game; one. And it was an underdog – Jacksonville, who gave the Titans their first win of the year. Yeah, we rock.
Our big winners were Squid and Cindy for picks, and Cindy for spread (building upon her lead), but again we were all kind of mediocre; last place in picks was two wins fewer than Squid and Cindy, and, aside from my suckage, there was a 3-game spread from top to (next to) bottom in odds.
All of us split at least one game, and we totaled 15 splits. Lloyd and Janel were right to split Indy’s game; Fozzy, Shannon, Lloyd, Cindy, and Janel were right to split SD’s game; and Lloyd, Squid, and Joe were right to split the Saints’ game. Three of the failed splits were on Chicago (Me, Squid, Lloyd) and the other two were islands: me with Dal-Sea and Cindy with Ariz-Car. For Squid and Shannon, it was the first correctly picked split of the season, while I was 0-for-2 making me the most futile (1-for-11) at splitting games this season. Fozzy has the best success rate (3-for-7, .429 pct). And if you were paying attention, yes, Lloyd did split all three games that were decided by the spread, going 3-for-4 overall.
The only other islands were Shannon picking Buffalo to beat Houston (wrong) and Cindy picking the Ravens to beat the Broncos (right, damn you).
As for trends… Who’s hot? Shannon and Squid are a dandy 27-13 in picks the last three weeks, and Shannon is 48-20 in the last five weeks. Cindy is a stunning 41-26-1 in the spread the past five weeks, which is four more than the second best.
I wonder how many games in Week 9 will have double-digit spreads. Another 4-5, maybe?
Picks – Week 8
Cindy 9-4
Squid 9-4
Janel 8-5
Joe 8-5
Lloyd 8-5
Fozzy 7-6
Me 7-6
Shannon 7-6
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 78-38 --
Janel 78-38 --
Lloyd 76-40 2
Shannon 76-40 2
Joe 75-41 3
Squid 75-41 3
Me 74-42 4
Fozzy 70-46 8
Odds – Week 8
Cindy 8-5
Janel 7-6
Lloyd 7-6
Joe 6-7
Squid 6-7
Fozzy 5-8
Shannon 5-8
Me 2-11
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 68-47-1 --
Janel 60-55-1 8
Lloyd 60-55-1 8
Joe 59-56-1 9
Squid 58-57-1 10
Me 57-58-1 11
Fozzy 56-59-1 12
Shannon 55-60-1 13
WEEK 7
So 11 of the 13 favorites wons last week. Of those 11, only one did not cover the spread as we got our first tie of the year: Houston won, and was favored, by 3 over the Niners. Hadn’t I just mentioned something about ties? Oh, and no one split that game.
Speaking of splits, there were a grand total of four split picks last weekend. I split the NYG-Ariz game, Squid split the Gb-Cle game, and Lloyd split the SD-KC and Phi-WAS tilts. All wrong, of course. And, thusly we were also all alone on those picks. The only other island picks came from Squid, who was wrong picking the Dolphins over the Saints (really, the Fins?), but nailed it picking the defending NFC Champs (Cardinals) over the Giants.
We were a respectable 2-1 in unanimous games, winning with the Pats and Colts, but losing with the Panthers, which I really think was a unanimous pick in thinking that the Bills would lose more than the Panthers would win.
And the big winner last week was my wonderful wife as her hot streak continues. Shannon and Squid are 29-12 in the last 3 weeks. And Squid is still the hot one in the odds, going 26-14-1 in the past 3 weeks. Thus, there are some changes in the order of people in the standings – check it out!
Picks – Week 7
Shannon 11-2
Fozzy 10-3
Joe 10-3
Squid 10-3
Janel 9-4
Lloyd 9-4
Cindy 8-5
Me 7-6
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Janel 70-33 --
Cindy 69-34 1
Shannon 69-34 1
Lloyd 68-35 2
Joe 67-36 3
Me 67-36 3
Squid 66-37 4
Fozzy 63-40 7
Odds – Week 7
Shannon 10-2-1
Fozzy 9-3-1
Joe 9-3-1
Squid 9-3-1
Janel 8-4-1
Me 8-4-1
Cindy 7-5-1
Lloyd 6-6-1
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 60-42-1 --
Me 55-47-1 5
Janel 53-49-1 7
Joe 53-49-1 7
Lloyd 53-49-1 7
Squid 52-50-1 8
Fozzy 51-51-1 9
Shannon 50-52-1 10
WEEK 6
Short and sweet this week.
The Vikings did not cover their 3-point spread with the Raven, winning by 2. Why Joe split this game was beyond my understanding. Now I know. He acted alone.
The Steelers did not cover their 14-point spread with the Browns, winning by 13. Why Fozzy was the only person to split this game is beyond me, of course, that means I didn’t split it either.
The Jags did not cover their 9.5-point spread with the winless Rams. Cindy was right to split this one. But what was Squid thinking that the Rams would win a game, any game, let alone this one? He was alone and wrong. He was also alone with Houston and got that one right.
There were MANY island splits this week, in fact all 9 splits were islands. Lloyd had three; Cindy had two; Joe had two; Janel had one; Fozzy had one.
The only other island was Cindy picking the winless Bucs over the Panthers. As Depeche Mode would say: “Wrong!”
By the way, the Packers more than covered their 13.5-point spread, winning 26-0 over the Lions, and the Pats also threw done a shutout on the winless Titans (59-0 if you don’t remember) easily besting that game’s 9.5-point spread. The other big odds failed big: Philly by 14.5 lost by 4 and the Jets by 10 lost by 3.
Oh, and we had NO unanimous games this week. And we still have no ties versus the spread yet this season. By this time last year, we had three (of 5 total).
As for our standings, the top of the picks is no longer just Cindy’s domain.
Picks – Week 6
Me 10-4
Fozzy 9-5
Janel 9-5
Shannon 9-5
Joe 8-6
Squid 8-6
Lloyd 6-8
Cindy 5-9
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 61-29 --
Janel 61-29 --
Me 60-30 1
Lloyd 59-31 2
Shannon 58-32 3
Joe 57-33 4
Squid 56-34 5
Fozzy 53-37 8
Odds – Week 6
Me 9-5
Fozzy 7-7
Squid 7-7
Cindy 6-8
Shannon 6-8
Janel 5-9
Joe 5-9
Lloyd 4-10
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 53-37 --
Lloyd 47-43 6
Me 47-43 6
Janel 45-45 8
Joe 44-46 9
Squid 43-47 10
Fozzy 42-48 11
Shannon 40-50 13
WEEK 5
A long-time player in this picking thing got first place for the first time this year. Squid was two games better in picks and one better in spread than anyone else. In the meantime, Cindy added some distance between her and second place.
There are lots of haves and have-nots right now in the NFL, the league of parity supposedly. Tennessee (13-3 last year), Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis are all 0-5, and Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, Detroit, and Carolina all have just one win. Yep, that’s five wins among nine teams. Meanwhile, the haves (undeafeated Indy, Denver, Giants, Vikings, and Saints) are lining up for tough games this weekend, and only two haves are guaranteed to remain undefeated (Indy has a bye, Giants and Saints play each other). Despite some tough matchups, we have SIX more games this weekend of 9.5 points or higher for a spread.
This DISparity led to six games last week with a point spread of 8 or more, four of which were 10 or more. So, of course, we had three games decided by the spread of which two were of the high spread variety (Pitt did not cover the 10.5 over Detroit, Dallas did not cover the 8 over KC) and the other was Carolina beating Washington by 3, with a 3.5 point spread – oh, those half-points! Only one person split any of those games: Lloyd split the Dallas-KC game, you lucky bahstahd.
We were unanimous on three games of which two were of the double-digit spread variety (Pittsburgh – oops, and the Giants who won by 37 points) and the other was Indy by 4 over the Titans (Colts won by 22). So, we were 2-1.
There was only a couple of islands this week, and really not worth getting into. There were a bunch of splits, but you already know the only one that was right, so… on to the records and standings.
Picks – Week 5
Squid 11-3
Cindy 9-5
Joe 9-5
Lloyd 9-5
Me 9-5
Shannon 9-5
Fozzy 7-7
Janel 7-7
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 56-20 --
Lloyd 53-23 3
Janel 52-24 4
Me 50-26 6
Joe 49-27 7
Shannon 49-27 7
Squid 48-28 8
Fozzy 44-32 12
Odds – Week 5
Squid 10-4
Cindy 9-5
Joe 9-5
Fozzy 8-6
Lloyd 8-6
Me 8-6
Janel 5-9
Shannon 4-10
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 47-29 --
Lloyd 43-33 4
Janel 40-36 7
Joe 39-37 8
Me 38-38 9
Squid 36-40 11
Fozzy 35-41 12
Shannon 34-42 13
WEEK 4
It was one of those weeks for the ages. Eleven favorites (14 games) won their games. Two games were decided by the spread, one of which we unanimously did not split. And of the three underdog winners, all three were home teams. So, how many home underdogs lost? Two – Cleveland, with 4 seconds left in OT, and KC, which were our two unanimous games (Cincy to win and cover, nope; and Giants all the way, yep).
Oh, and if you’re wondering why it was a week for the ages, since the above stuff doesn’t really jump out at you… Six of the eight of us won at least 10 games, three of those six won 12 or more. Yup. And the big winner was Cindy, going 13-1. She picked the Ravens to beat the Patriots, which was her only loss; her only solace should be that five of us picked the Ravens in that game. Cindy also decimated the competition with an 11-3 mark against the spread, which had a markedly different win record range: the worst had 4 wins and only one other person had more than 8 wins versus the odds (my lovely wife with 9).
Due to splits, there was another large number of island picks this week. I was alone splitting the Hou-Oak game while Fozzy was alone picking Oak to win outright (Houston won by a whopping 23 points). Lloyd was all by himself splitting the Pit-SD game (Pit covered the spread by 4) and he was alone splitting the Saints-Jets tilt while Squid was singled as picking the Jets to win outright (Saints won by two TDs). Janel split the Indy-Seattle game (Indy won by 17); maybe she’s a Seneca Wallace fan. Lastly, Joe split the Was-TB affair, which in fact occurred since the Skins won by 3 (7.5-point spread). The aforementioned Cleveland loss was the other game where the favorite did not cover (Cincy by 6, won by 3).
There were some splits that were not islands, just that they were all the same game. Joe, Lloyd, Squid, Fozzy, and I all split the Chi-Det battle, which the Bears were favored by 9.5 (Bears won by 24 points).
I’m really curious how the splits will be for Week 5. Why? you ask. There are FOUR double-digit favorites, two more favorites of more than a TD, six home underdogs, and one game that has not received a line all week due to the uncertainty at QB for the home team.
Picks – Week 4
Cindy 13-1
Lloyd 12-2
Shannon 12-2
Janel 11-3
Me 11-3
Joe 10-4
Squid 8-6
Fozzy 7-7
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 47-15 --
Janel 45-17 2
Lloyd 44-18 3
Me 41-21 6
Joe 40-22 7
Shannon 40-22 7
Fozzy 37-25 10
Squid 37-25 10
Odds – Week 4
Cindy 11-3
Shannon 9-5
Janel 8-6
Joe 8-6
Lloyd 7-7
Me 7-7
Squid 5-9
Fozzy 4-10
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 38-24 --
Janel 35-27 3
Lloyd 35-27 3
Joe 30-32 8
Me 30-32 8
Shannon 30-32 8
Fozzy 27-35 11
Squid 26-36 12
WEEK 3
In a week where most of the favorites won, so did we for the most part. Janel was the uber-winner though as she was tops in both categories (13 wins in picks, 11 in odds).
We had three unanimous games: we won Green Bay and the Giants, but lost the Steelers. There were a ton of island picks this week and somehow Cindy and I were left out of that mix. Fozzy was the only person to pick the Falcons (tsk tsk, picking against the Pats); Squid was definitely on an island picking Miami to upset SD (they did not) and the Lions to end their losing streak (they did, really, they did, I keep trying to believe it too); Shannon errantly chose the Bills over the Saints, had the game been in December…; Lloyd was all alone with a few splits (Was-Det, NO-Buf, Dal-Car); Joe was singled out splitting SD-Mia; and Janel was the only Bronco rooter (yes, they ARE 3-0).
As for splitting, I think you get a sense already of how poorly splits went. Only one game was decided by the spread as the Vikes did not cover the 6.5 over the Niners. Cindy, Lloyd, and Fozzy correctly split that game. Kudos, yo. I got one wrong, Squid got one wrong, and Cindy got the same one wrong (Phi-KC); Lloyd, Joe, and Janel incorrectly guessed that the Ravens would not cover the 13 points over the Browns, oops; and Shannon did not split a game.
Picks – Week 3
Janel 13-3
Cindy 11-5
Joe 11-5
Fozzy 10-6
Lloyd 10-6
Me 10-6
Shannon 10-6
Squid 10-6
Picks – Season
Player W-L GB
Cindy 34-14 --
Janel 34-14 --
Lloyd 32-16 2
Fozzy 30-18 4
Joe 30-18 4
Me 30-18 4
Squid 29-19 5
Shannon 28-20 6
Odds – Week 3
Janel 11-5
Cindy 10-6
Fozzy 10-6
Squid 10-6
Shannon 9-7
Joe 8-8
Lloyd 8-8
Me 8-8
Odds – Season
Player W-L GB
Lloyd 28-20 --
Cindy 27-21 1
Janel 27-21 1
Fozzy 23-25 5
Me 23-25 5
Joe 22-26 6
Shannon 21-27 7
Squid 21-27 7
WEEK 2
In a week where half the underdogs won, and nine home teams succumbed, what would one expect but five games’ difference between first and last. Also, we had one unanilous game and lost (Tenn). Such a different week from the season’s first.
As for the odds, Cindy went from last place in week 1 to first in week 2. Nice turnaround. Still, as a group we suck at picking vs. the spread, even with only one game decided by it (Was-StL).
Oh, and in a strange anomaly, there was only one island in week 2. Shannon picked Carolina to upset Atlanta (nope).
Picks – Week 2
Cindy 11-5
Lloyd 10-6
Fozzy 8-8
Janel 8-8
Me 8-8
Squid 7-9
Joe 6-10
Shannon 6-10
Picks – Season
Cindy 23-9
Lloyd 22-10
Janel 21-11
Fozzy 20-12
Me 20-12
Joe 19-13
Squid 19-13
Shannon 18-14
Odds – Week 2
Cindy 12-4
Lloyd 10-6
Janel 8-8
Me 8-8
Fozzy 7-9
Joe 6-10
Shannon 5-11
Squid 5-11
Odds – Season
Lloyd 20-12
Cindy 17-15
Janel 16-16
Me 15-17
Joe 14-18
Fozzy 13-19
Shannon 12-20
Squid 11-21
WEEK 1
Week 1 was pretty even for picks as one game separated all eight of us. We had five unanimous games (Pitt, Minn, Sea, NE were wins, Hou was a loss). Ultimately, the fact that the Lynches picked identically AND picked Philly (no one else did) got them the one-game lead.
Versus the spread, however, was ugly with five games decided by the odds (Pitt, Indy, Giants, Pats, and Chargers did not cover). So with that disparity and Lloyd’s penchant for splitting games, Lloyd took week 1 as the only person with a winning record.
Picks – Week 1
Janel 13-3
Joe 13-3
Cindy 12-4
Fozzy 12-4
Lloyd 12-4
Me 12-4
Shannon 12-4
Squid 12-4
Odds – Week 1
Lloyd 10-6
Janel 8-8
Joe 8-8
Me 7-9
Shannon 7-9
Fozzy 6-10
Squid 6-10
Cindy 5-11
Miscellaneous records
whole season
Me Picks Odds Fozzy Picks Odds Squid Picks Odds Shannon Picks Odds Lloyd Picks Odds Cindy Picks Odds Joe Picks Odds Janel Picks Odds
Last 3 weeks (regular season)
WINS 31 22 28 23 32 24 30 21 28 20 33 22 33 21 29 21
LOSSES 17 23 20 22 16 21 18 24 20 25 15 23 15 24 19 24
TIES 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3
Last 5 weeks (regular season)
WINS 49 36 45 39 52 39 50 35 48 35 52 39 56 37 50 36
LOSSES 31 41 35 38 28 38 30 42 32 42 28 38 24 40 30 41
TIES 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3
Islands
WINS 4 3 6 9 7 10 5 3 15 11 6 8 7 5 5 3
LOSSES 5 6 12 8 12 9 6 8 8 12 8 6 2 3 3 5
TIES 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Splits 2 wins Att. 2 wins Att. 2 wins Att. 2 wins Att. 2 wins Att. 2 wins Att. 2 wins Att. 2 wins Att.
Times w/2 Ws RATIO 8 28 7 23 5 24 2 6 13 44 12 32 9 25 6 15
for PCT. 0.286 0.304 0.208 0.333 0.295 0.375 0.360 0.400
Times attempting
The Spreadsheet
2009 football picks in Excel
